IndustryInsider Series Post #1 Is Bitcoin mining one of the most profitable business industries? Are crypto mining stocks the most undervalued stocks relative to their potential return in the entire tech space? Should I mine Bitcoin or buy Bitcoin mining stocks?
Unlike my investment addict series, which looks at one company and makes directional hypotheses about its stock, the Industry Insider series is about industry analysis. In this specific piece, I will focus on what is probably one of the newest and most industries I am curious about - bitcoin mining.
In this piece I will include information that is about:
1) What is Bitcoin mining?
2) What are Bitcoin mining stocks?
3) What I think about bitcoin mining stocks vs actually mining Bitcoin
4) A parallel between Bitcoin mining and gold mining to understand what I think are the advantages and disadvantages of Bitcoin mining stocks relative to Bitcoin (based on their similarities with gold mining companies and their advantages and disadvantages over owning physical gold)
1) Bitcoin mining is a process of using GPUs (video cards) to solve complex puzzles to create new bitcoin as a reward for verifying transactions on the Bitcoin network.
2) Bitcoin mining stocks are the stocks companies which have a core business in mining Bitcoin and are listed on the stock exchange. Their core advantage is that they can mine at at much larger scale than individuals and at a significantly lower cost than those for an individual. In that sense, they represent something like gold miners for gold. The difference is that instead of actually physically mining gold, the mined asset is a digital one - Bitcoin. The way for instance Marathon Digital Holdings' facility looks is shown by Figure 1 below.
Figure 1. Marathon Digital Bitcoin mining facility
3) Based on the above it should not come as a surprise that I think that buying Bitcoin mining stocks is better than buying Bitcoin mining equipment. Today, I found a rig for about EUR 6,000 with 3 video cards NVDA 3080 which could mine up to 0.024 Bitcoin a year. Even at a $200,000 price per Bitcoin, this would basically mean I have yielded $4,800 on this 6,000 EUR investment (before any costs).
If I have to factor in that in the Netherlands 1 KWH of electricity costed EUR 0.10 and now costs EUR 0.67 (a 570% increase in my electricity cost for 1 hour), I am not sure that the math of "mining Bitcoin" works out to be positive even on $200,000 Bitcoin. So when it comes to at least the Netherlands, there is no advantage in mining $4,800 worth of Bitcoin (at assumed $200k) while we are at 20k now, which means at current prices I would mine about /10 = $480 per year, still EX any costs) at best on EUR 6,000 invested. So at 20-23k it would take me about 10-15 years to breakeven (still before costs).
Adding a potentially 10,000 EUR electricity cost as the single cost (ex any other costs). This means Bitcoin will need to reach at least about $800,000 for me to be able to make a 100% ROI on investment. I will need about 10 years of mining to obtain 0.24 Bitcoin (even worse, in 4 years of 2024, there will be another halving event, which means I am likely to earn (0.12 + 0.06 or about 0.18-0.20) for these 10 years. Paying 6,000 EUR to mine 0.20 Bitcoin for 10 years prior to any expenses is a no-go for me (based on my geographical region and particular costs of electricity + total potential reward). Also waiting for $BTC 800k as of 20k now to have 100% profit from this, I'd be better of just buying Bitcoin itself as from $20k to $800k it would be 40x vs my 100% for mining. Therefore, I am trying to show that to me, at this particular moment, in this particular country, Bitcoin mining would be the worst of the 3 options (from mining Bitcoin, buying Bitcoin and buying Bitcoin mining stocks).
I imagine this of mined Bitcoin/electricity cost used to be much better when electricity cost was lower (2013-2020). However, the most significant change in why Bitcoin mining is not worth it for any individual is - the halving cycle. This is the time at which the rewards for mining Bitcoin are split in half. While this process is supposed to go on until 2100 and beyond, the most profitable part of the cycle was between 2009-2022.
Some would argue that the supply is barely beginning to tighten and even these rewards are worth mining because there is only 21,000,000 Bitcoin on only 7 billion people. I cannot afford to think about 2100 and beyond in very deep terms as of yet. However, my basic thinking is that just like with gold as an underlying commodity, when its price increases say like 2009-2012 by 500%, gold miners tend to jump by at least 1000% or more, some of which beyond 10,000%.
In a similar fashion when Bitcoin grew from $3200 to about $68,000, this was a very respectable - 20.25x. However, for the same bitcoin bull run, RIOT grew by over 150x from $0.58 to above $72. Now ideally this illustrates my point two points 1) that bitcoin mining is useless for an individual and 2) that bitcoin mining offers higher returns in Bitcoin bull runs than Bitcoin itself. Meaning as an investment instrument, Bitcoin is better than Bitcoin mining but also likely to underperform professional Bitcoin mining companies such as Riot, Mara, Btbt.
Lets dive into my outlook on crypto miners
Bitcoin mining stocks potential return. For these, I will use some charts to visualize and explain the reward/risk ratio as a measure of attractiveness based on current prices and my potential price targets for each of these stocks.
1. $RIOT - Riot Blockchain
Above I wrote that Riot had a rally of about 150x. In reality, during 2020 to Q1 2021, the rally of Riot was from about $0.40 to about $80 or 200x to actually clarify the actual return (see Figure 2 below, the 2020-2021 part of the graph). Yes, this is a about 200x return from low to high.
Figure 2. Riot resistance zone and potential price target for this BTC cycle
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Is the past predictive of the future?
2. $MARA - Marathon Digital Holdings
4) I already mentioned that the simplest way, in my opinion, to think about bitcoin mining companies is to think of them as similar to gold mining companies. Instead of "physical gold", they are mining for what some would refer to as "digital gold". The argument that Bitcoin is digital gold comes the idea that it is in theory the most scarce, real asset on Earth (even more scarce than gold). While gold supply on average grows by 2% a year, and cannot be exponentially increased due to natural limitations, Bitcoin supply is increased on a strict, pre-communicated schedule, which defines that the last Bitcoin will be mined somewhere in 2148 (or something similar) and after this, there will be no more to mine. So this is the key difference, and why in theory digital gold is more valuable than physical gold, namely due to the lower overall supply of Bitcoin relative to gold, less can be mined, making each Bitcoin mined worth more than each oz of Gold (currently one Bitcoin about 23k buys over 12.8-13 oz of gold (to calculate this take the price of BTC/1oz gold). For those that do not know, an oz is about 33 grams, so currently 1 Bitcoin buys about 400 grams of gold. The idea is that eventually it will buy 1 kilo of gold (i.e. 60% more return in terms of gold). From here, another question for a future piece could be, will 1 bitcoin become equal to 10 kg of gold by 2148 or more? I will come back to this in the future. For now, I hope this illustrates to some extent, why we could think of Bitcoin as digital gold and Bitcoin mining companies as potentially more profitable gold miners (due to mining a more profitable and scarce, underlying commodity). The one key difference in supply is that while gold increases supply on average by 2% a year, Bitcoin's schedule of supply decreases mining rewards exponentially over time by halving them every 4 years (referred to as the bitcoin halving cycles). Also, both are finite resources, but it is not known when exactly all gold reserves will be depleted, while it is known that Bitcoin supply will be final in 2148.
The key takeaway so far is to think of gold as the physical commodity and gold miners as the companies whose core business operations are in mining gold. Likewise, bitcoin miners mine Bitcoin as the digital equivalent of gold.
So what are the differences between gold miners and crypto miners, what are the advantages and disadvantages of crypto mining stock vs direct ownership?
Gold vs Bitcoin mining differences
The first and most obvious difference between gold and crypto miners is that gold miners mine something tangible. Crypto mining is not actually mining, as explained, it is a "term" which describes the process of creating new bitcoins on the bitcoin network by validating transactions (and competition to solve the puzzles to get the reward by different miners).
Another key difference is due the difference in the actual mining, gold miners often mine for other metals, minerals and valuable stones. In that sense, Bitcoin miners are different because they focus only on mining bitcoin (in theory the mining rigs which are used to mine bitcoin can be used to also mine alternative currencies like Litecoin, but this is something done by individuals, not by crypto mining companies).
Advantages and disadvantages of ownership of Bitcoin directly and indirectly (via stocks)
Advantages of owning Bitcoin directly - for those who believe the Bitcoin narrative as a tool of freedom and exit of the FIAT system, the advantage is their paranoid minds can rest easy that they own their actual holdings. They do not need to trust any exchange, be it a crypto or a stock exchange. They do not trust the system of capitalism, so they can have the piece of mind related to keeping it in a "cold wallet". The disadvantage of this at minimum, is that if proper tax is not paid (because you are hiding assets from the government, they can still come to your house and take it all). Worse, in 1930-1940s, gold was confiscated (forced people to sell at a low price to the treasury) and people who did not want to sell were labelled terrorists. The last disadvantage of owning Bitcoin this way is if you once lose your keys, it's forever (i.e. people who died with 1000 Bitcoin or more and who did not tell other people how their accounts can be accessed, contain Bitcoin which is lost forever as it can never be accessed).
The advantage of stocks is that they are tax efficient. In other words, they are stocks which means that they are regulated and tax is applied to our individual investing accounts. As a person, who prefers tax efficiency, to me Bitcoin miners offer an advantage in that sense (as tax is automatically calculated based on results).
The second and equally important advantage is that bitcoin mining stocks, historically have produced higher gain in every bull market for Bitcoin than Bitcoin itself. I already mentioned the example of how Bitcoin grew 20x from 2019 to 2021, but Bitcoin mining stocks grew over 100-150x. There are at least two reasons for this outperformance - 1) productive companies and 2) higher risk. The first point is derived again from the logic of gold and Buffet on commodities, namely that one should never buy a commodity but should rather buy the business which operates in the commodity. As per Buffet's explanation, the business will yield a higher return than the underlying commodity because the business makes a profit from this commodity and has economies of scale efficiencies. In other words, in addition to the commodity, by buying a business we are buying a % of their machines, treasury, real estate and all other assets on their balance sheet, which work together to produce a return higher than the commodity itself. The second point is that as stocks and public companies, these Bitcoin miners carry a much higher risk of bankruptcy than Bitcoin itself (so the risk taken by people who buy stocks which mine Bitcoin is higher, which potentially leads to higher returns because as every book on investing says return is always equal to risk).
To extend the point on risks of crypto mining stocks, their biggest disadvantage is that if businesses are run poorly (e.g. Bitcoin is not sold off at high prices to buy more miners to compensate for halving events and maintain ability to earn by essentially doubling the amount of miners to compensate for the 1/2 reduction in rewards, these companies can run into difficulties increasing future Bitcoin supply). Another disadvantage could be that if they do not sell any and Bitcoin drops by 90%, they can essentially go bankrupt as cost of mining would be higher than cost of Bitcoin (i.e. they would be on minus by mining it, so they will not mine it).
A final bit of Bit Digital
Bit Digital ($BTBT) is the only Bitcoin miner that does not exclusively mine Bitcoin. They are the only company that has been committed to mining both Bitcoin and Ethereum ($ETH). As a result over the past couple of years they have mined over 10,000 ETH. To me this personally is important because I can for the first time extend the argument that Bit Digital unlike other pure Bitcoin miners, represents a company which had its core operations in mining two different tokens - Bitcoin and Ethereum. Bitcoin maximalists (those who think everything other than Bitcoin is a scam would not appreciate this). However, I personally appreciate it because to me $BTBT is the only stock which is something like Yamana Gold (which mine both gold and silver). The argument would then be that Bit digital is the only company that mined both digital gold and silver. Whether ETH can be called digital silver is entirely different question, but it serves to illustrate a key point. This key point is that, usually mixed miners (like Yamana) tend to outperform larger gold miners (like Newmont mining) in terms of performance. This is a bit counterintuitive, but Dr Bernstein summarized in one sentence "good companies and leaders are bad stocks, and bad companies are good stocks". I may write a special piece to explain this.
Here comes the juicy part. Those who are familiar with the Ethereum network, will immediately recognize I used the word - mined (10,000 Ethereum) as in past tense. This is because as of the so-called Ether Merge, Ethereum is no-longer a minable token. Wait does that mean BTBT's Ethereum miners are useless? Yes, all BTBT's Ethereum miners are now useless. What's the bright side? Well, they have already mined over 10,000 ETH which at current price of about $1,600 per ETH is between $16-$18 million. Moreover, due to the Ether merge, Ethereum can now be staked to earn yield (staking refers to earning yield just like we earn 0.25% on money in our bank accounts in the Netherlands). Bit Digital has entered an institutional staking agreement whereby it will earn 9% on its over 10,000 ETH a year.
So to me, while there is definitely a cost related to all Ethereum miners becoming obsolete. However, the benefit of yielding 9% at 0 cost of mining (i.e. never having to turn on miners again to mine because now they can yield 9% on 10,000 ETH about every year), means they can essentially double their ETH holdings in less than 11.2 years (AT 0 COST of mining). That thus creates a potential avenue for a sustainable competitive advantage over other Bitcoin miners such as Riot and Marathon.
The key takeaway for me is therefore, if I had to choose 1 of those 3, to be the best in terms of its potential gain (i.e. to outperform the other 2), that would be Bit Digital. I will also post a separate TheInvestmentAddict post about my treasury analysis of this company.
Hypothesis 1: Bitcoin mining stocks will outperform Bitcoin in terms of return by Q1 2026
Hypothesis 2: Bitcoin mining stocks will top 3-6 months in advance of Bitcoin
Hypothesis 3: Bitcoin mining stocks will fall by a sharper both Bitcoin and Crypto mining stocks have topped
Hypothesis 4: Bitcoin mining stocks like RIOT, MARA and BTBT will outperform every FAANG stock + Tesla
Hypothesis 5: Bitcoin mining due to being one of the newest tech sub-sectors in growth stocks represents one of the least invested sub-sectors and will grow by a rate which is exponentially faster than any other tech sub-sector
Hypothesis 6a: Ethereum will outperform Bitcoin in terms of growth
Hypothesis 6b: Due to BTBT having 50% of its treasury in about 10,000+ ETH and 50% in about 1200 BTC, it will outperform both RIOT and MARA in terms of percentage return despite having less Bitcoins
Hypothesis 6c: the reason for BTBT to outperform other bitcoin miners is that it is the only miner that will benefit from ETH outperforming bitcoin (H6a), which will be a more important factor than HASH rate which currently everyone is using.
Hypothesis 6d: Mara due to fundamentally being strongest - the only miner which never sold Bitcoin, highest hash rate and highest balance, will actually underperform both RIOT and BTBT.
Hypothesis 6e: Mara due to being the largest of these miners will have the least return
Hypothesis 6f: BTBT will outperform both Riot and Mara in terms of return by Q1 2026
Practical implications for my investing strategy
I would never mine Bitcoins, I would never buy the equipment to buy Bitcoins as the reward/risk ratio is very low. Also, I do not believe in Bitcoin as the only asset in the world that has value, so I prefer to use the conventional tool of stocks. Bitcoin miners, all of the 3 above, in my opinion, will outgrow Bitcoin and any Bitcoin mining strategy. Therefore, my ongoing play as of August 2022 is not to buy Bitcoin, but Bitcoin miners. I am buying even more Bitcoin mining stocks now in Q1 2023.
I favour Bit Digital and it represents about 70% of my crypto stocks, i.e. Riot and Mara are the smaller percentage.
Fyi every time I think about bitcoin mining, this meme pops to mind. I will in the coming days link a piece here on how I knew the Dogecoin top was in on 29 April 2021, 4 days before the actual top on 03 May 2021. This will be my either my first or second piece of TheSocionomicsProdigy series.
If you are curious you can see how my opinion is working out for me by clicking here. This link will lead you to the % gain/loss since my Marathon Post (which also contains the links of my Riot and BTBT posts and their respective gains/losses)
Reminder
If this is the first piece that you read on this blog, I strongly advise you to go to the "purpose of the blog" page to understand what this blog is about. Also, you will understand what the IndustryInsider series is about. You can do this by clicking here. At least scroll down to the middle of the page and read the section called - "What does this blog include?" for an explanation on each of my blog series and the type of content that is included in each of the series.
Nothing on this Blog constitutes financial or investment advice, a recommendation that any security/cryptocurrency, portfolio of securities/cryptocurrencies, other investment products, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. Every person has unique personal circumstances, financial situation, goals, and risk capacity. No one should use the content of this Blog to make financial decisions.
In short, nothing in this blog is financial advice! Do your own research & Do your own due diligence. If you have investment questions, I highly recommend you seek help from an authorized (regulated) financial planner, which I am not.




